Risk assessment for transporting ammonium nitrate-based fertilizers with bulk carriers

Abstract

Population growth has enhanced the need for agricultural products. Ammonium nitrate (AN)-based fertilizers are well known to increase product yield. Unfortunately, this type of fertilizer presents serious risks on account of its volatile nature. Accidents continue to occur despite international regulations and practices to eliminate or reduce risks arising from maritime transport to acceptable levels. In the present study, risks related to the transport of AN-based fertilizers were identified through root cause analysis of the M/V Cheshire accident. The relationships between the detected risks and probabilities were quantitatively evaluated using the Bayesian network method, and suggestions to prevent accidents caused by mistakes made during the transport of AN-based fertilizers were provided.