A fuzzy-bayesian approach on the bankruptcy of hanjin shipping

Abstract

The vital role of container liner shipping in international trade suggests that understanding why container liner firms go bankrupt is crucial to the sustainability of the maritime supply chain to improve resilience. Considering the insolvency of Hanjin Shipping as a case study, this paper investigates the probabilistic relationships among the bankruptcy causal factors that are disclosed qualitatively and quantitatively, exploiting a fuzzy Bayes network approach. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to increase the accuracy of the findings. Outcomes of the paper reveal that an integrated approach comprising of both endogenous and exogenous causal factors is a more powerful approach to explain the demise of Hanjin Shipping. Compared to exogenous factors, endogenous factors account more for the collapse of the firm. Furthermore, it is found that government support would have been a more influential measure to mitigate the negative effects of the demise compared to the merging and acquisition practice. Competitor liner operators, policymakers, and stakeholders in the maritime supply chain ecosystem can utilize the outcomes of this research to mitigate the bankruptcy risk and improve the maritime supply chain resilience capacity.