The SVM-ARIMA fusion approach for forecasting the structural integrity of obsidian substitution mortars

Abstract

The construction materials used in building design have changed over time, and their properties continue to evolve. Concrete possesses important characteristics such as high strength, durability, low cost, and easy accessibility. However, the preparation and consumption of cement, which is the primary basic material for concrete, contributes to CO2 emissions, accounting for 5-8% of total emissions. In recent years, researchers have been conducting various research to lower the ratio. One of alternatives is the utility of binders with pozzolanic properties alongside cement. In this study, mortar specimens were produced using different proportions of obsidian powder with pozzolanic properties, ranging from 0% to 30%, in conjunction with cement. The compressive strengths of mortar specimens were measured by subjecting them to technical examines for different time such as 3, 7, 14, 28, and 56 days. However, one of the significant challenges concerns the direction and rate of change in compressive strengths of concrete at later ages. To overcome this challenge, the SVM-ARIMA fusion forecasting model is used in this paper for predicting short-term compressive strengths of mortar specimens. Using this model, compressive strength values for the next 30 days were predicted based on the 90-day compressive strength data. Evaluation results indicate that the use of SVM-ARIMA fusion statistical model is appropriate for predicting the compressive strengths of mortar specimens.